Global Macro Research: How Institutions Think in Regimes
Global macro research is not about predicting the next data release or calling market turning points. At the institutional level, macro analysis exists to classify environments, not to forecast outcomes.
Forecasts fail frequently. Macro regimes persist. Institutions organize their thinking around durable economic states defined by the interaction between growth and inflation.
From Narratives to Regimes
Narratives interpret data. Regimes constrain outcomes. When markets behave counterintuitively, narratives are usually misaligned with the underlying regime.
The Core Axis: Growth and Inflation
| Growth | Inflation | Regime |
|---|---|---|
| Rising | Falling | Disinflationary expansion |
| Rising | Rising | Inflationary expansion |
| Falling | Rising | Stagflationary slowdown |
| Falling | Falling | Deflationary contraction |
Why Regimes Matter
Regimes shape asset correlations, policy reactions, and risk management. They persist longer than narratives and provide structural stability for decision-making.
What This Research Is — and Is Not
This research is explanatory and framework-driven. It is not investment advice, a trading strategy, or a forecasting service.